Democratic Presidential Nominees Lineage & 2028 Pathway Matrix 1992 – 2028e

Source: @stats_feed historical lineage analysis & Kalshi 2028 prediction market odds
Cycles (1992-2024)
9
7 Unique Nominees
Dominant Archetype
VP / Exec (55.5%)
3 VPs, 2 Govs, 3 Sens
2028 Market Leader
A. Ocasio-Cortez
21.5% Implied Probability
General Win Rate
55.6%
5 of 9 Won (2 PV Won)
Career Pathway & Nomination Lineage Matrix
Governor (Clinton '92)
Vice President (Gore '00, Biden '20, Harris '24)
U.S. Senator (Kerry '04, Obama '08)
Cabinet / Sec (H. Clinton '16, Buttigieg)
Representative / Insurgent (AOC 2028)
* Node height denotes primary vote share; connecting bands represent career pathway transitions. Hover or tap any cycle or 2028 contender node to inspect details
Historical Nomination Precedent Database (1992–2024)
Year Nominee Prior Primary Office Age Primary Share General Result Archetype Precedent
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