WSJ Scoop Analysis Ohio Mega-Campus Guarantee 2.5 GW Capacity Profile

Nvidia-OpenAI Ohio Data Center Backstop & Project Finance Model

Stress-testing Nvidia's restructured project finance backstop for OpenAI's Ohio campus. Models balance-sheet credit exposure across the 50% initial guarantee ($125B) vs. uncollateralized tranche-2 drawdown, power scaling economics, and counterparty debt service coverage (DSCR).

Nvidia Phase 1 Exposure
$125.0B
50.0% of planned $250.0B CapEx
Debt Service Coverage (DSCR)
2.84x
Underwritten at 85% cluster load
Silicon & Server Allocation
$170.0B
68.0% of total campus budget
Power & Facility CapEx
$28.8B
$11.5M/MW on 2.50 GW grid
Capital Waterfall & Guarantee Staging ($B)
5-Year Debt Service & Cash Flow Projection ($B)
5-Year Campus Project Finance Underwriting Schedule Ohio SPV Tranche Architecture
Year OpenAI Run-Rate Capacity Online Debt Principal Out. Annual Debt Service Operating Cash Flow Project DSCR Nvidia Exposure Status
Credit & Risk Memo: Restructuring the Ohio campus into a 50% staged guarantee ($125B initial tranche) reduces Nvidia's immediate contingent liability by $125.0B. At an estimated OpenAI run-rate of $45.0B/year and 2.50 GW total power envelope, the project maintains an initial DSCR of 2.84x. Milestone gating on Tranche 2 protects Nvidia balance sheet against inference pricing compression or rapid silicon depreciation prior to commercial cluster saturation.
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