Macro & Household Drivers Real-Time NY Fed Model
-1.2%
Wage progression adjusted for household essential expenditure cost changes.
4.8%
Perceived 1-year consumer price increases on food, energy, and shelter.
28.5%
Required monthly principal and interest across credit cards, auto, and mortgages.
65.0%
% of consumers reporting lenders are harder to borrow from vs 1 year ago.
2.1 mo
Liquid cash reserves available to service non-discretionary living costs.
Financial Health & Sentiment Telemetry Elevated Vulnerability
Retrospective Deterioration Index
68.4
Scale 0–100 (Higher = Worse)
Forward Pessimism Score (1-Yr Ahead)
72.1
Scale 0–100 (% Expecting Harder Year)
Credit Tightening Exposure
High
Lending Rejection Probability Tier
3-Month Delinquency Probability
14.2%
Transition to 90+ Day Past Due
Household Financial Stress Distribution & Delinquency Hazard Kernel Shift Model
Immutable Validated Metrics Snapshot
Deterioration Index
68.4
Forward Pessimism
72.1
Credit Tightening
High
Delinquency Risk
14.2%
Household Stress Rating
Elevated Vulnerability
Methodology & Research Grounding
Modeled on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and reported by Bloomberg. The index models retrospective financial deterioration from real wage erosion and high debt service, forward-looking expectations, and perceived stringency in borrowing credit.