Labor Profile & Method
20 (Normal)
25 (Overweight)
30 (Obese I)
40+ (Severe)
Annual Wage Penalty
-$7,145
Starting: $44,855/yr
Compounded 40-Yr Loss
-$412,890
Real career wealth erosion
Retirement Wealth Gap
-$128,450
At age 65 (5% match + 4% real)
Gender Penalty Ratio
9.0x
Female vs. Male asymmetry
Counterfactual 40-Year Career Earnings Trajectory
Baseline Trajectory (BMI 22)
Penalized Actual Trajectory
95% Confidence Band
Methodology & Identification Comparison
| Econometric Specification | Female Penalty / BMI Unit | Male Penalty / BMI Unit | Annual Loss (Current Profile) | Confidence Interval (95%) |
|---|
Labor Economics Benchmark: Cawley (2004, Journal of Human Resources), Norton & Han (2008), The Economist (2023 Meta-Analysis). Genetic Mendelian Randomization (IV) isolates unconfounded causal penalty coefficients using biological instruments (FTO alleles) across longitudinal NLSY and UK Biobank cohorts.