Bill James Log5 Probabilities Every individual playoff matchup resolves head-to-head win likelihood using regular season true talent levels, run differentials, and strength of schedule, normalized so higher regular season win rates reflect actual October historical win expectancies.

Pitching Rotation Leverage & Short Rest In a 7-game or 5-game series, ace starters alter single-game win probabilities substantially compared to back-of-the-rotation depth. The simulator models Games 1, 4, 5, and 7 as high-leverage starter leverage spots with relief pitcher fatigue curves.

10,000-Run Monte Carlo Simulation Rather than static deterministic projections, the engine evaluates thousands of full tournament branches, tracking exact pathing, elimination rates, potential World Series pairings, and high-pressure Game 7 outcomes across both leagues.