Global Oil Price & Middle East Supply Shock Simulator

Calibrated to the New York Times breaking dispatch: “The global price of oil reached $100 a barrel for the first time in months as tensions in the Middle East escalated.” Model physical flow bottlenecks, Strait of Hormuz closure risks, emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) offsets, and downstream retail inflation.

Dispatch Source: The New York Times (@nytimes) • Reported crude benchmark threshold: $100/bbl Observed: September 2026

Supply & Bottleneck Parameters LIVE SYNC

Baseline Global Crude ($/bbl) $100.00

Market equilibrium price prior to immediate acute supply outage escalation.

Gross Physical Disruption (mbpd) 2.50 mbpd

Million barrels per day removed from global production due to regional pipeline/wellfield offline status.

SPR Counter-Release (mbpd) 1.00 mbpd

Strategic Petroleum Reserve coordinated injection rate by IEA member states to damp volatility.

Strait of Hormuz Risk Severity (%) 65%

Chokepoint transit vulnerability index (20 mbpd daily flow path insurance & tanker rerouting risk).

Domestic Refinery Utilization (%) 88.5%

Operating capacity of crude distillation units determining crack spread and gasoline pump pass-through.

Market Equilibrium & Forecast Curve

Dynamic 90-day trajectory based on non-linear inventory elasticities

High Volatility / OPEC+ Contingency Active

Simulated Crude Price

$107.50

+$7.50 (+7.5%) vs Base

Avg US Retail Gasoline

$4.12

per gallon at pump

Headline CPI Shock

+0.85%

annualized inflation pts

Macroeconomic Sector Transmission

Commercial Aviation Fuel Surcharge

+$14.2B

Annualized industry operating expense increase assuming jet fuel spot crack spread of $32/bbl above crude.

Net Daily Global Deficit

1.50 mbpd

Physical inventory draw from commercial floating and onshore storage after SPR releases.

Household Annual Energy Tax Equivalent

$438 / yr

Direct discretionary consumption drag per average commuter household across motor gasoline and heating oil.