Oil Market Buffer & Iran Risk Scenario Workbench

Scenario Presets QUICK CONFIG

Supply & Policy Variables

Iran War Disruption Severity 35%

Global Spare Capacity (OPEC+) 1.5 mb/d

SPR Emergency Release Velocity 800 kb/d

Pre-Disruption Brent Crude Base $78.5/bbl

Buffer Exhaustion 42 Days Floating Cushion Depletion

Market Status Buffers Played Out Wirth Depletion Horizon

Projected Brent Price $112.4 Per Barrel Peak Dynamic

Oil Risk Index High (Level 4) Geopolitical Fragility Score

Dynamic 90-Day Oil Price & Buffer Depletion Shock Horizon

Projected Brent ($/bbl)

Buffer Inventory (mb)

Exhaustion Mark

Calculated Deficit: 1.2 mb/d | Gross Disruption: 3.5 mb/d

The Wirth Market Thesis

When regional spare capacity is abundant, initial disruption shocks are absorbed without violent price spikes. Once spare capacity drops near structural minimums (under ~2.0 mb/d) and commercial inventories are drawn, the market operates without shock absorbers. Any escalating conflict in Iran or the Persian Gulf transmits directly into steep physical premiums.

SPR & Mitigation Limits

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases can temporarily offset crude deficits by supplying up to 1.0–1.5 mb/d. However, as demonstrated by the depletion curve, prolonged physical supply constraints exhaust finite reserves and increase medium-term backwardation in global oil futures.