Shock Parameters
Live Input Flow
Pipeline Operational Throughput
35%
Saudi East-West Petroline throughput (5.0 MBD nominal capacity). Current attack offline reduction: 65% loss (3.25 MBD).
Iran War Escalation Factor
High
Strait of Hormuz tanker tanker risk & regional export disruption premium (+2.45 MBD implicit deficit).
Emergency SPR Release Mitigation
1.5 MBD
Coordinated IEA / US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory draw (offsets supply shortage up to 4.0 MBD).
Pre-Crisis Brent Baseline
$78.50
Pre-attack equilibrium price per barrel prior to disruption event.
Saudi East-West Trunk Active Flow
1.75 / 5.0 MBD
Market Intelligence Assessment: The closure of Saudi Arabia's principal transit pipeline amidst open hostilities with Iran eliminates 3.25 MBD of critical bypass capacity. With an active High regional risk premium (+2.45 MBD) partially counterbalanced by 1.5 MBD of emergency SPR draws, the resulting net deficit of 4.2 MBD exerts steep inelastic price pressure, driving Brent to $124.80/bbl (+58.9%) and sparking a +24.2% consumer fuel inflation wave.
Equilibrium State Record
STATE: LIVE CALIBRATED
| Parameter | Model Input | Shock Consequence | Net Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pipeline Infrastructure | 35% Operating | -3.25 MBD Offline | Severe Bottleneck |
| Conflict Risk Premium | High Severity | +2.45 MBD Synthetic Deficit | +31.2% Risk Spread |
| SPR Emergency Mitigation | 1.5 MBD Release | -1.50 MBD Deficit Relief | -$16.50/bbl Dampening |
| Final Crude & Inflation | $78.50 Base | $124.80 Projected | +24.2% Inflation |
Grounded Source: Associated Press Dispatch (@AP) — Saudi pipeline closure following armed attack amid regional conflict.
Simulated via D3.js non-linear crude supply elasticity equations.