Global Oil Price & Geopolitical Escalation Impact Workbench ($100/bbl)

Supply & Flow Drivers Live Calibrated

Crude Benchmark Base ($/bbl) $100.00

Brent / WTI composite prompt month spot baseline before conflict premium.

Middle East Disrupted Supply (mb/d) 2.50 mb/d

Estimated volume offline via Hormuz tanker rerouting or field shut-ins.

Strategic Reserve (SPR) Release (mb/d) 1.20 mb/d

Coordinated IEA/US emergency strategic inventory drawdown rate.

Maritime Freight & War Risk Surcharge (%) +18.5%

War risk insurance premiums & Cape of Good Hope rerouting costs.

Global Refinery Utilization (%) 89.2%

Cracking capacity throughput constraint; above 90% accelerates spreads.

Adjusted Spot Price

              $107.8
            
              Benchmark baseline: $100.00

Strategic Net Deficit

1.3 mb/d

Supply loss minus SPR injection

Jet Fuel Delta

+22.4%

Distillate crack + air freight shock

Retail Diesel Projection

$4.15/gal

Commercial hauling & trucking cost

Crude Escalation & Buffer Sensitivity Curve

Projection of adjusted crude spot pricing over varying net supply deficits (-1.0 to +4.0 mb/d)

Model Curve

Current Operating Point

$100 CNN Baseline

Economic Sector	Primary Cost Driver	Estimated Passthrough	Vulnerability Horizon
Commercial Aviation	Kerosene/Jet-A Crack Spread	+22.4% fuel surcharge	Immediate (2–4 week ticketing lag)
Long-Haul Logistics & Freight	Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD)	$4.15/gal (+13.7%)	Weekly fuel surcharge adjustments
Maritime Container Lines	Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO)	+18.5% bunker index	Cape route deviation +14 days
Headline CPI Energy Index	Gasoline & Utility Feedstock	+0.48% inflation contribution	Quarterly central bank impact

Generated Market Impact Brief