Operationalize Walter Bloomberg's report on oil traders cutting long-term exposure as Iran and Ukraine conflicts increase duration risk. Simulate how capital concentrates into prompt tenors (0–6 months) as tail risk surges.
Percentage of active trading desk portfolio allocated by contract maturity (1m to 24m)
Duration compression: prompt (0-6m) accumulation vs back-end (12-24m) risk cutting
"Oil traders are reducing longer-term exposure as the Iran and Ukraine wars increase uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley’s Brendan Ross. Traders are concentrating positions in the next three to six months as geopolitical risk premiums render long-dated commitments prohibitively volatile and capital-intensive."