Maritime Threat Parameters
High Intensity
Route shift avoiding Bab el-Mandeb / Suez
Active Attack Theaters
The Goldman Thesis: Crude rally can reach $120, but rerouting adds +10 to +18 days of transit, absorbing massive tanker capacity. Refined diesel crack spreads and European TTF gas hedges yield superior risk-adjusted asymmetric upside due to extreme tonne-mile inelasticity.
Maritime Transit Geometry & Rerouting Corridors
Suez (Standard: ~12-14d) vs Cape of Good Hope (+14.2d)
Suez Route (Normal)
Cape of Good Hope Diversion
Chokepoint Active Threat Zone
Primary Energy Loading Terminal
Tonne-Mile Expansion: +42.5%
Added Cape Transit Delay: 14.2 days
Tanker Capacity Squeeze: +8.4% global fleet tied up
Asset Valuation & Hedge Matrix
Baseline Brent $78.50
Implied Brent Peak
$120.00
▲ +52.9% vs $78.50 base
Diesel Crack Spread
$38.40
▲ +74.5% / bbl margin
Dutch TTF Nat Gas
€52.60
Baseline: €34.50 / MWh
LNG Carrier Day Rate
$185,000
Baseline: $75,000/day
Goldman Recommended Basket
Outperforming Crude
+48.2%
50% Gasoil/Diesel Crack Spread + 50% Dutch TTF Gas Hedge (Vs. Outright Brent Long +52.9% at peak target)
| Instrument | Base | Stress Peak | Δ Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $78.50 | $120.00 | +52.9% |
| Diesel Crack | $22.00 | $38.40 | +74.5% |
| TTF Gas (EUR) | €34.50 | €52.60 | +52.5% |
| LNG Day Rate | $75k | $185k | +146.7% |