Macro Transmission Engine

Oil Shock Market Transmission Workbench

Geopolitical Scenario Source: Reuters Wire
$92.50
1.6 mb/d
0.8 mb/d
$24.00
Baseline Brent$78.00 / bbl
CPI Direct Energy Weight7.1% Basket
Freight Surcharge Beta0.32x Brent % Δ
10Y Sovereign Yield Pass~0.98 bps / $1.00 Δ
1990 Gulf War+$21.00 (+118%)
2022 Ukraine Invasion+$34.50 (+37%)
Current US-Iran Stress+$14.50 (+18.6%)
Macroeconomic & Multi-Echelon Cascade Net Deficit: 0.8 mb/d
Headline CPI Impulse +38.4 bps Annualized Pass-Through
US 10Y Yield Shift +14.2 bps Term Premium Repricing
Fed Terminal Repricing +18 bps Rate Path Implication
Household Burden $342 Annual Gasoline Drag
Multi-Echelon Transmission Cascade Flow (D3.js)
Cross-Sector Equity Repricing Exposure
Energy Producers (XLE) +5.2%
Aviation & Logistics -6.8%
Consumer Discretionary -3.1%
Regulated Utilities -1.4%
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