OPEC+ vs China Crude Leverage & Flow Simulator

Simulate Middle East wartime crude bottlenecks, bilateral Yuan/shadow trade, and pricing leverage shift.

OPEC+ Market Sway Index
41.2/100
Quota enforcement weakened by war
China Buyer Leverage Index
78.6/100
Deep discount absorption capacity
Global Net Supply Deficit
1.85mb/d
Hormuz restriction vs non-OPEC buffers
Discounted Flow to China
2.15mb/d
Iran + Urals shadow tanker channel
Brent Shadow Freight Premium
$18.40/bbl
War risk insurance & freight margin
Dynamic Crude Flow & Choke-Point Map Live Barrel Throughput (mb/d)
Bilateral Physical Route Matrix
Origin / Stream Choke Point Destination Channel Volume (mb/d) Discount ($/bbl)
Geopolitical & Disruption Console High Escalation
Strait of Hormuz Status
Middle East Conflict Intensity
Iran Sanction Rerouting 65%
China Discount Spread $14.50
OPEC+ Quota Compliance 78%
China SPR Fill Rate 850 kbd
Strategic Dynamic: As Persian Gulf chokepoints throttle Western benchmark crude, sanctioned and discounted Iranian/Russian barrels bypass official OPEC+ dollar-pricing corridors into independent Chinese refiners (Teapots), accelerating the shift from producer price-setting discipline to sovereign buyer monopsony power.
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