Oura IPO Revenue & Cohort Economics Workbench

S-1 Diligence Model
Model Ready
S-1 Valuation Scenario: Pre-IPO run-rate with 2.4M unit hardware shipments and 88% membership attach.
Hardware Net Revenue
$837.6M
76.7% of total revenue
Recurring Subscription ARR
$254.3M
23.3% high-margin ARR
Blended Net Revenue
$1,091.9M
+48.2% YoY growth rate
Blended Gross Margin
52.87%
+640 bps software uplift
Ending Active Members
3,537,250
87.5% annual cohort retention
Implied Enterprise Value
$4.91B
4.5x blended EV/Rev
Operating Assumptions Live Sensitivity
2,400,000
Annual smart ring consumer & retail sales units
$349
Blended Heritage & Horizon finish mix
88%
% of ring buyers converting to paid $5.99/mo after 1-mo trial
$5.99
Monthly subscription rate (USD/month)
12.5%
Annual membership cancellation & lapse rate
44.0%
Titanium casing, sensor package, and assembly BOM margin
82.0%
Cloud biometric algorithms, sleep staging, server infra
$118
Customer acquisition cost across direct & retail channels
36-Mo LTV / CAC Ratio: 3.68x
Assumes 3-year subscriber cumulative gross profit + hardware margin contribution.
36-Month Monthly Cohort ARR & Active Subscribers Evolution
Decomposes starting subscriber pool and 3 subsequent annual vintage vintages under monthly exponential churn
3.54M Ending Subscribers
Revenue Mix & Gross Margin Expansion Profile
Hardware sales vs. high-margin recurring membership software margin mix
52.87% Blended GM
Comparable Public Peer Multiples Wearables & HealthTech
Company / Peer Hardware % SaaS % EV / LTM Rev Implied Oura EV
* Valuation benchmark bands adjust based on Oura's software revenue share. As membership ARR approaches 30%+, trading multiples shift from pure hardware (Garmin/Fitbit) toward connected health software.
Executive S-1 Diligence Summary Automated Analysis
IPO S-1 Diligence Artifact & Model Output Audit-Ready Verification

The output below reflects the calculated model parameters, unit economics, cohort decay telemetry, and peer valuation benchmarks for diligence packs.

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