“This was a grade A CHOKE JOB!!” 😳
Green Bay entered the 4th quarter with an 11-point lead and a peak 94.5% win probability before suffering 2 turnovers and a scoreless quarter.
In-Game Win Probability Curve
GB Peak: 94.5%
Final: MIN Win
Timeline Scrubber: Minute 45 (Start of Q4)
Packers WP: 94.5%
Q1 (0m)
Q2 (15m)
Halftime (30m)
Q4 Start (45m - GB 94.5%)
Final (60m)
Packers Win Prob
94.5%
Vikings Win Prob
5.5%
Game Situation
Q4 15:00 - GB leads by 11
4th-Quarter Scenario Simulator
Grade A Choke
Adjust Q4 execution variables to observe how turnovers, defense stops, and clock bleed prevent or accelerate the collapse.
2 (Actual)
17 pts (Actual)
0 pts (Actual)
Simulated GB Final WP
0.0%
Collapse Severity
Grade A
Projected Outcome
Vikings Win
NFL Historical 4th-Quarter Blown Leads & Choke Index
Benchmarked Context
Comparing Pete Prisco's "Grade A Choke Job" to modern NFL postseason and regular-season historic collapses.
| Matchup | Season / Game | Pre-Q4 Lead | Peak Win Prob | Net WP Swing | Prisco Severity Grade | Turning Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers vs. Vikings (Featured) | 2026 Regular Season | +11 GB | 94.5% | 94.5% | Grade A | 2 Q4 turnovers, 17 unanswered MIN pts |
| Falcons vs. Patriots | Super Bowl LI (2017) | +19 ATL (28-9) | 99.6% | 99.6% | Grade S | Hightower strip-sack, 31 unanswered NE pts |
| Vikings vs. Colts | 2022 Week 15 | +33 IND (33-0) | 99.9% | 99.9% | Grade S+ | Largest comeback in NFL history (39-36 OT) |
| Oilers vs. Bills | 1992 Wild Card | +32 HOU (35-3) | 99.4% | 99.4% | Grade S | Frank Reich 4 TD second half explosion |
| Chargers vs. Jaguars | 2022 Wild Card | +27 LAC (27-0) | 98.7% | 98.7% | Grade A | Lawrence rally after 4 first-half INTs |
Verified Telemetry: Packers vs. Vikings 4th Quarter Collapse Explorer
STATUS: HYDRATEDDeterministic audit payload capturing game flow, Pete Prisco commentary, win probability drop, and scenario testing.
Source Analyst
@PriscoCBS
Peak Packers Win Prob
94.5%
Final Game Result
Vikings win
Q4 Lead Entering
11 pts
Choke Severity Rating
Grade A
Net WP Collapse
94.5%