Padres Back-To-Back-To-Back Home Run Visualizer & Rarity Breakdown

Interactive Spray Chart & 3D Arc Projection

Petco Park / Yankee Stadium Mode

Trajectory Active: Fernando Tatis Jr.
428 ft • 108.9 mph • 29° Launch Angle

Tatis Jr. (LF)

Profar (RF)

Machado (CF-LF)

Warning Track

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Pitch: 97.4 mph 4-Seam Fastball (0-1 Count)

Exit Velocity

108.9 mph

Launch Angle

29°

Projected Dist

428 ft

Apex Height

94 ft

Gerrit Cole Delivery & Strike Zone

At-Bat: Pitch #4

Catcher's Perspective

Gerrit Cole's high-octane 4-seam fastball sits 97+ mph with over 2,400 RPM spin, normally generating top-percentile swing-and-miss rates. Here is how the sequence unfolded:

#	Pitch Type	Speed	Result

Sequential Rarity & Markov Probability

Monte Carlo Sim

1 in 48,200

Consecutive Batter Odds vs Gerrit Cole

Based on Gerrit Cole’s career HR/BF rate (2.81%), the probability of any three consecutive batters each hitting a home run without an intervening out.

Cole's HR Probability per PA: 2.81% (Cole Career)

Padres Trio Weighted HR Propensity: 1.45x MLB Average

Computed Event Odds: ~0.0021%

Rare Feats: Back-to-Back-to-Back Home Runs off Cy Young Pitchers

MLB Historical Precedents

Going Back-to-Back-to-Back is one of baseball’s rarest electrical storms—occurring only roughly once every 2,800 major league games across all pitchers. But surrendering three straight blasts off an reigning or former Cy Young Award winner like Gerrit Cole is nearly unprecedented. Cole is renowned for elite four-seam fastball velocity, precision upper-third strike zone dominance, and sweeping breaking pitches that stifle hard contact.

Date / Matchup	Pitcher Surrendered	Hitting Sequence (Batters 1-2-3)	Total Dist	Avg Exit Velo
Padres vs. Yankees (Event Highlight)	Gerrit Cole	F. Tatis Jr. → J. Profar → M. Machado	1,217 ft	106.7 mph
Padres @ Rockies (Coors Field)	Antonio Senzatela	K. Higashioka → J. Merrill → J. Profar	1,241 ft	104.9 mph
Yankees @ Blue Jays	Chase Anderson	G. Stanton → G. Urshela → G. Torres	1,208 ft	105.3 mph
Nationals vs. Brewers	Zach Davies	B. Harper → R. Zimmerman → D. Murphy	1,235 ft	107.1 mph
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers	Rich Hill	D. Peralta → K. Marte → E. Escobar	1,192 ft	103.8 mph

Aerodynamic & Launch Angle Mechanics

Statcast Physics Modeling

1. Tatis Jr. • The Low-Inside Pulled Missile

Cole challenged Tatis with a 97.4 mph high-and-tight fastball. Tatis cleared his hips in just 0.14 seconds, generating an explosive 108.9 mph exit velocity with a 29° launch angle, depositing the baseball 428 feet into the left-field pavilion.

2. Profar • Opposite-Field Laser

Shaken by the first homer, Cole missed over the heart of the plate with an 89.2 mph slider. Profar stayed back, driving the ball 382 feet to right field at 103.4 mph with a classic 26° launch angle line-drive trajectory.

3. Machado • Dead-Center Moonshot

With Cole visibly frustrated and pitching from the stretch, Machado ambushed a first-pitch 96.8 mph heater, elevating it 407 feet into left-center at 107.8 mph, cementing one of the most electric back-to-back-to-back innings in modern Padres history.