Arbitrage Controls
Prediction Market Odds (YES)
30.0%
Current Stock Price (WBD)
$21.20
Target Deal Acquisition Price
$28.50
Completion Timeline
5 Months
Portfolio Position Size
$10,000
Downside Stock Price (On Break)
$14.00
Gross Spread
+34.4%
Annualized Yield
+82.6%
Expected Value (EV)
$18.35
Risk / Reward Ratio
1 : 1.01
Event-Risk Expected Value Payoff Distribution
Annualized Arbitrage Yield Curve vs Timeline
Market Arbitrage Analysis & Provenance
Calculated using Polymarket implied 30.0% probability. Buying WBD stock at $21.20 with a $28.50 deal target offers a gross spread of $7.30 (34.4%). Given a 5-month completion horizon and $14.00 break downside, the position's expected valuation is $18.35 per share.