PayPal M&A & Carve-Out Scenario Analyzer: Stripe vs Advent

Archetype A · Optimal Path

Stripe takes Braintree & processing gateway infrastructure; Advent takes Venmo, branded consumer checkout & credit.

Archetype B · Industrial Mega-Deal

Stripe absorbs all PayPal assets into unified merchant stack. High strategic revenue synergy but acute FTC/DOJ antitrust risk.

Archetype C · Sponsor LBO

Pure financial sponsor leveraged buyout. High debt capitalization with aggressive margin expansion and unbundled divestitures.

1. Transaction Valuation & Leverage

PayPal Total Enterprise Value $74.0B

Implies $68.50/share (vs base market cap ~$62.0B)

LBO / Debt Financing Share 45%

Total senior + mezzanine funded debt facility

Braintree EV / TPV Multiple 4.5%

Valuation on $480B annual processing volume

Venmo Value per Active User $230 / MAU

Across 92M monthly active P2P consumers

Antitrust Remedy Divestitures 15%

Voluntary merchant volume spin-offs to clear FTC

Joint Consortium Split

Stripe Asset Share $33.3B Braintree + Merchant Gateway

Advent PE Share $40.7B Venmo + Branded Consumer

Pro-Forma Debt / EBITDA 4.8x Debt: $33.3B | ICR: 3.4x

Antitrust Gateway HHI Δ +420 pts DOJ Review: Moderate

Unit	Metric Base	Implied EV	Buyer

Executive Transaction Memo