TARGET PROMISED MOIC
2.45x
LP Hurdle Target Value: $1,225.0M
PROJECTED MOIC (DPI+RVPI)
1.62x
Realized: 0.88x | Residual: 0.74x
PROMISE SHORTFALL GAP
33.88%
Capital Shortfall: $415.0M
REALIZED DISTRIBUTIONS (DPI)
$440.0M
Paid-in Capital: $500.0M
PORTFOLIO VINTAGE SELECTOR BOOM ERA
FUND PARAMETERS & MACRO SHOCKS
Fund Committed Capital $500M
Exit Multiple Compression -1.8x
Holding Period Extension +3.5 yrs
Portfolio Distress / Write-off Rate 14.5%
Boom-era Entry Valuation Premium 35%
STRESS SCENARIOS
Cumulative Capital Call vs Distribution Trajectory
Target Promise
Projected Actual
Realized DPI
CAPITAL RETURN STATUS UNDERPERFORMING
Committed LP Capital $500.0M
Target MOIC Promise 2.45x
Target Expected Total Proceeds $1,225.0M
Projected Total Value (TVPI) $810.0M
Absolute Cash Shortfall $415.0M
LIQUIDITY & DURATION ANALYSIS YEAR 10 HORIZON
Realized DPI (Cash Returned) 0.88x ($440.0M)
Unrealized RVPI (Remaining NAV) 0.74x ($370.0M)
Estimated Fund Life 13.5 Years
GP Catch-up Eligible NO (Sub-hurdle)
Effective LP Net IRR Shortfall -6.8%
Context & News Source: Financial Times report "Boom-era PE funds will fall short on promises, executives warn" (@FT post 2098994751005429993).
Simulations model 2017-2021 vintages against typical 2.0x-2.5x LP hurdle expectations, demonstrating how delayed distributions and valuation compression create substantial cash return deficits.
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