Persian Gulf & Red Sea Bypass Network
Route Geometry: Saudi Petroline (Abqaiq → Yanbu)
Live Infrastructure State
Petroline: OFFLINE (Bypass Severed)
Infrastructure Impact: Saudi Arabia's 5.0 MB/d East-West Petroline (Abqaiq to Yanbu) is the single largest bypass routing crude directly to Red Sea terminals without sailing through the contested Strait of Hormuz choke point. When shut, global buyers face forced maritime rerouting, severe tanker demurrage, and physical supply delays.
Simulation & Choke Point Controls
Saudi East-West Petroline Status
SHUT (0.0 MB/d)
Strait of Hormuz Congestion / Bottleneck
1.4x (+40%)
Multiplier reflecting tanker war-risk premiums, queuing bottlenecks, and speed throttling.
Baseline Pre-Disruption Brent
$94.50 / bbl
Supply Deficit
4.20 MB/d
Daily net delivery shortfall
Projected Brent
$108.00
Target escalation per barrel
Maritime Delay
8.5 days
Average VLCC detour / demurrage
Demurrage Surge
+$2.85M
Per VLCC voyage premium
Scenario Summary:
Petroline shutdown removes 4.20 MB/d of bypass capacity from global crude balances. Compounded by a 1.4x maritime choke at Hormuz, VLCC voyages face an 8.5-day delivery shortfall, driving benchmark Brent from $94.50 to $108.00 per barrel.