Pipeline Disruption & Oil Price Impact Workbench
Pipeline Damage Severity
45%
Reduces capacity through Saudi East-West & Yanbu pipeline trunks.
Tanker Rerouting Around Hormuz
30%
Absorbs throughput loss via maritime Cape of Good Hope & Gulf routes.
Strategic Reserve (SPR) Release Buffer
25,000 kb
Buffer allocated to dampen panic buying in Asia-Pacific hubs.
Baseline Benchmark (Brent / $/bbl)
$82.50
China Delivered Price
$114.80
+$32.30 vs baseline
Disrupted Throughput
5,500
thousand bbl/day lost
Effective Shortage
3,850
kbd net deficit after rerouting
Import Premium
delivered spot spread
Supply-Demand Price Curve & Market Equilibrium Shift
Baseline Supply
Post-Attack Shock
Equilibrium
Geopolitical Market Dynamics: China relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude imports transported through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea pipelines. Disruptions along Saudi Arabian transit routes force immediate reliance on long-haul VLCC tanker routes (+14 to +22 days transit) and prompt refineries to pay massive premiums on spot cargoes.