Playoff Bracket Simulator & Series Odds Engine

Tournament Field & Net Ratings

Series Format Rules

Home Court Boost (pts) +2.5

Game Variance / Upset Factor 11.0

Playoff Scenarios:

2026 Postseason Championship Bracket

Click any team to manually pick the series winner, or use the simulation engine to generate series scores.

Simulation Mode: Active R1: Bo3 · Semis: Bo5 · Finals: Bo5

First Round Best-of-3

SERIES 1 (1 vs 8) Series: 0 - 0

1 New York Liberty 84% -

8 Atlanta Dream 16% -

SERIES 2 (4 vs 5) Series: 0 - 0

4 Las Vegas Aces 62% -

5 Seattle Storm 38% -

SERIES 3 (2 vs 7) Series: 0 - 0

2 Minnesota Lynx 79% -

7 Phoenix Mercury 21% -

SERIES 4 (3 vs 6) Series: 0 - 0

3 Connecticut Sun 69% -

6 Indiana Fever 31% -

Semifinals Best-of-5

SEMIFINAL 1 Series: 0 - 0

- Winner Series 1 - -

- Winner Series 2 - -

SEMIFINAL 2 Series: 0 - 0

- Winner Series 3 - -

- Winner Series 4 - -

WNBA Finals Best-of-5

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES Series: 0 - 0

- Semi 1 Winner - -

- Semi 2 Winner - -

Bracket loaded. 2026 playoff seeds ready for simulation. Status: Ready

Monte Carlo Projected Championship Probability (1,000 Tournaments)

Simulations: 1,000 Complete

Seed	Team	Rating	R1 Win %	Finals %	Title %	Championship Share

How the Playoff Simulation & Logistic Model Works

The simulator uses a calibrated logistic win-probability function derived from team net ratings (points scored minus allowed per 100 possessions), adjusted for home-court advantage and series variance:

Single-Game Probability: $P(\text{Team A}) = \frac{1}{1 + 10^{-(\text{Rating}_A - \text{Rating}_B + \text{HCA}) / \sigma}}$, where $\sigma$ is the game variance parameter.
Series Simulation: Each series simulates independent games following the chosen format (e.g., Best-of-3 format follows Home-Home-Away host rotations). The first team to win 2 (or 3 in Bo5) advances.
Monte Carlo Engine: Clicking "Run 1,000x Monte Carlo" executes 1,000 full tournament simulations in memory, recalculating exact probabilities of reaching the Semifinals, Finals, and lifting the championship trophy.

Bracket Customization & Manual Override

You have full interactive control:

Manual Series Winners: Click on any team card slot in the bracket to lock that team in as the winner and advance them to the next round.
Live Net Rating Tweaks: Adjust any team's rating in the left panel to model injury absences, rest advantages, or hot streaks; odds update instantaneously.
Format Experimentation: Test historical formats, all Best-of-5 schedules, or chaotic single-elimination March-style brackets.

Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super