Playoff Bracket Simulator & Series Forecaster

Simulate postseason series under authentic game-by-game Monte Carlo odds. Adjust offensive and defensive ratings, customize series length (best-of-3, 5, or 7), pick direct upsets, and export official printable brackets.

Tip: Click any team in the bracket to force a winner advance
Projected Champion
#1 Liberty
34.2% Simulated Equity
Highest Upset Danger
#4 vs #5
44.8% Underdog Win Rate
Average Series Games
4.2 / 5
Based on series length rules

How the Postseason Model Calculates Odds

The simulator uses a calibrated possession-based Bradley-Terry logistic model adapted for basketball playoff dynamics. Team quality is expressed through Net Rating (points scored minus allowed per 100 possessions against league average).

  • Home-Court Adjustment: Adds standard points per 100 possessions to the home team's expected margin.
  • Series Formats: First round Best-of-3 uses a 2-1 or 1-1-1 host schedule. Best-of-5 uses 2-2-1. Best-of-7 uses 2-2-1-1-1.
  • Per-Game Variance: Each single game margin follows a normal distribution with an 11.2 point standard deviation reflecting real-world single-game volatility.

Direct Manipulation & Bracket Customization

You have full interactive control over both the simulated outcomes and custom overrides:

  • Click Any Node: Manually pick an upset or preferred team; the downstream matchups automatically recalculate their probabilities.
  • Adjust Net Ratings: Test how an injury or momentum streak alters a lower seed's championship equity.
  • 10,000x Monte Carlo: Runs ten thousand complete postseason simulations to output true tournament equity percentages and series likelihoods.
  • Complete Export: Downloads the formatted bracket data and probability matrix as a JSON document or copyable report.
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