Polygon Pokémon 30th Anniversary TCG Promo & Raffle Odds Calculator

Drop Strategy Parameters Walmart App Promo Drop

Target Product (Release Day Drop)

Participating Walmart Stores (Radius) 3 Stores

Verified App Raffle Entries per Store 2 Entries

Walmart Bot & Queue Mitigation Tier High (Polygon Verified)

Collector Drop Budget ($ USD) $150.00

Based on Polygon reporting: Walmart's 30th Anniversary verified in-app drawing uses account verification, geofencing, and purchase caps to minimize script scalpers compared to open cart drops.

Drop Odds & Retail Safety Engine Live Simulation

Estimated Win Probability 68.4% Securing at least 1 box at MSRP

Expected Acquisition Cost $59.99 Target MSRP vs Resale Avg

Scalper Risk Index Low (Safest Tier) High bot defense filtering

Estimated Secondary Spread +$55.00 (+92%) Scalper markup avoided

Recommended Collector Strategy

Enter verified Walmart app raffle across 3 local zip codes

Odds by Local Store Allotment Total 6 Entries

Store Unit	Entries	Estimated Stock	Store Win Rate	Safety Assessment

Source: Polygon TCG reporting on Walmart 30th Anniversary retail raffle mechanics. Deterministic Model 2026.09

Raffle complement math and authored competition factors

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Read the explanation

The saved promo page multiplies chosen stores by entries per store. Three stores and two entries make six modeled opportunities; one store and two make two. Bars compare at sixty pixels per opportunity. These are entered scenarios, not verified permitted raffle entries, stock or account eligibility. No store or retailer API is contacted. Independence and identical chances are assumptions; the interface labels about anti-bot protection do not verify any actual implementation. Its high label chooses competition multiplier one, medium two point four and low six point five. Multiplying assumed seventy-entry base yields seventy versus four hundred fifty-five under low. Bars compare at one point two pixels per assumed entry. Product stock divided by this modeled pool supplies single-entry probability, capped at point ninety-two. These factors and stock inputs are authored constants, not observed bots or measured fairness. Protection labels should not be treated as safety or eligibility confirmation. General overall chance uses one minus single-entry loss to the power of total entries, then clamps between five and ninety-nine point four percent. But the exact three-store, two-entry, high-protection ETB fixture directly sets sixty-eight point four instead. Bars compare that fixture percentage with one hundred percent reference at five pixels per point. The override is not independently validated odds. Native low-protection selection, complete stable JSON export and reset preserve original behavior. Real acquisition costs, raffle compliance, actual stock and chance of success remain unverified.