Polymarket Fed Rate Probability & Yield Impact Simulator

Polymarket Feed Cointelegraph: "Traders now see a 79% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September."

Baseline Fed Rate: 5.25% Target: September 2026

Market Pricing Controls

79% Probability

Polymarket Rate Hike Probability 79%

0% (Priced Out) 50% (Toss-up) 79% (Reported) 100% (Certain)

Hike Step Magnitude (Basis Points)

Market Scenario Presets

Consensus State: Polymarket Weighted Consensus (79% @ 25 bps)

Risk Sentiment: Bearish Risk-Off

Implied Adjustment

19.75 bps

Prob-weighted: 0.79 × 25 bps

Projected Effective Rate

5.4475 %

Baseline 5.25% + 0.1975%

Stablecoin Yield Target

5.65%

Aave/Compound Treasury spread

📈 Implied US Treasury & Crypto Yield Curve

Baseline (5.25%) Shifted Curve

Maturities: Overnight (SOFR) → 3M → 2Y → 5Y → 10Y Inverted (-42 bps)

Multi-Asset Repricing & Crypto Liquidity Sensitivity Matrix

Simulated portfolio stress response under current probability-weighted rate step

Calculation Engine: math.js v12.4

₿ BTC

Digital Gold

Expected Shift: -2.4%

High macro-liquidity correlation; rate pressure reduces risk appetite.

Ξ ETH

Smart Contracts

Expected Shift: -3.1%

Staking yield premium tightens relative to risk-free federal short paper.

$ Stablecoins

Inflow Boost

DeFi APY Target: +5.65%

RWA tokenized treasury vaults pass through elevated Fed benchmark yields.

🏛 2Y Treasury

Policy Benchmark

Yield Reprice: 5.03%

Front-end rates directly reflect 19.75 bps implied September policy hike.

Scenario Comparison: Cointelegraph Polymarket Odds vs. Alternatives

Real-Time Diff Analysis

Scenario Name	Market Prob	Hike Step	Implied Adj	Effective Fed Rate	Stablecoin APY	Crypto Sentiment	Action
Active User Model	79%	25 bps	19.75 bps	5.4475%	5.65%	Bearish Risk-Off	Current
Cointelegraph Reported Baseline	79%	25 bps	19.75 bps	5.4475%	5.65%	Bearish Risk-Off
Fed Pause (Soft Landing)	15%	0 bps	0.00 bps	5.2500%	5.45%	Bullish Liquidity Expansion
Hawkish Shock (Hot Inflation)	90%	50 bps	45.00 bps	5.7000%	5.90%	Extreme Risk-Off

Methodology & Provenance:

Implied hike adjustment calculated as $ \text{Adjustment} = P(\text{Hike}) \times \Delta_{\text{bps}} $. Effective Fed Funds rate incorporates 5.25% baseline. Stablecoin APY models tokenized RWA/Treasury spread passed to protocols.