50-State Cartogram & Regulatory Jurisdiction
Click any state to inspect enforcement orders or change its coalition posture
Petitioner (NJ)
Active Cease & Desist
Amicus / Monitoring
Neutral / Pending
CFTC Safe Harbor
Markets Unconditionally Permitted
Dual State Licensing Required
Prohibited under State Gaming Acts
SCOTUS Ruling Simulator
Scenario 1 Active
1. Full CEA Federal Preemption
6-3 Split
SCOTUS holds 7 U.S.C. § 2(a)(1) exclusively vests CFTC with jurisdiction over designated contract markets, striking state anti-gambling bans against prediction exchanges.
2. State Police Powers Upheld
5-4 Split
SCOTUS invokes Murphy v. NCAA and 10th Amendment police powers, ruling that event wagering remains subject to state gaming licensure and enforcement.
3. Dual Regulatory Sphere Compromise
7-2 Split
SCOTUS remands: CFTC regulates financial contract clearing, but platforms must secure state sports-wagering licenses for election and athletic event contracts.
Constitutional Preemption Meter
Federal Supremacy (CEA § 2)
68%
Strong federal preemption likelihood based on DC Circuit Kalshi ruling and statutory text.
Doctrinal Argument Toggles
Selected State Inspector
Live Jurisdiction Focus
New Jersey (NJ)
Petitioner (Cert Filed)
Regulatory Body: NJ Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE)
Grounds: CEA cannot displace state constitutional gambling limits (N.J. Const. art. IV, § 7).
Active cease-and-desist orders issued against online election prediction markets.
50-State Regulatory & Preemption Docket Ledger
Audited jurisdiction status across all states and U.S. territories
| State | Current Regulatory Posture | Regulator / Gaming Authority | Circuit Court Alignment | Simulated SCOTUS Outcome |
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