Current Streak Status
Drought Active
Last Premier League clean sheet: January
Consecutive League Matches
21
Games without a clean sheet
Est. Goals Conceded in Run
36
Average: 1.71 per 90
Defensive Errors Leading to Goal
14
Unforced defensive lapses across streak
Clean Sheet Prob (Next Match)
0.28
Poisson defensive resilience rating
21-Match Drought Timeline (January – Present)
Select any fixture to inspect conceded goals, xG against, defensive errors, and opponent pressure.
Match 21: Chelsea vs Arsenal (1-2)
Opponent xG
1.84
Shots on Target Faced
6
Defensive Error
Yes (Turnover)
Minute Conceded
24', 68'
Run Trajectory: Conceded Goals & xGA per Match
Defensive Vulnerability Simulator
Simulate tactical adjustments to test Chelsea's clean sheet probability for upcoming fixtures.
Modeled Clean Sheet Probability
P(Goals Conceded = 0 in next fixture)
28.6%
Based on the 21-match Chelsea baseline (effective adjusted λ = 1.25), Poisson zero-goal probability is 0.286 (28.6%). An average opponent has a 71.4% likelihood of scoring.
Odds of Conceding ≥1: 71.4%
Expected Goals (λ): 1.25
Premier League Defensive Benchmarking Matrix
Comparing Chelsea's current 21-match streak against peers and historical baseline runs.
| Club | Current Run Without Clean Sheet | Total Conceded in Run | Goals Conceded / 90 | Def. Errors to Goal | Next Match CS Prob | Status |
|---|
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