Model Team USA vs International matchups at Medinah Course No. 3. Adjust Strokes-Gained attributes, simulate hole-by-hole match play, and compare projections against the historic 1998 Royal Melbourne benchmark.
Long dogleg right guarded by deep bunkers and lake inlet.
| Match | United States | International Team | Status | Holes | Action |
|---|
Simulated using PGA TOUR strokes-gained metrics on Medinah Course No. 3 (7,657 yards). Accounts for off-the-tee carry, approach proximity, and clutch putting distribution.
In 1998 at Royal Melbourne, Peter Thomson's International squad routed Jack Nicklaus's US team 20.5 to 11.5, powered by Shigeki Maruyama (5-0-0) and Ernie Els. At Medinah, the International team requires 15.5 points to hoist the trophy again (15.0 retains for the defending USA champions).
At 7,657 yards, Medinah No. 3 is one of the longest championship layouts in match play history. Holes like the 604-yard par-5 14th and the 455-yard par-4 13th penalize misses in the dense oak tree line and penal rough, shifting win probability by ~14% per missed fairway.
Four-ball (better ball) elevates aggressive birdiemakers like Tom Kim and Sahith Theegala. Foursomes (alternate shot) places extreme weight on course management and bogey avoidance, where pairing partners with complementary styles (e.g. Scheffler & Morikawa) delivers maximum strokes-gained efficiency.
Each golfer possesses base skill metrics: SG Off-the-Tee (+0.4 to +1.2), SG Approach (+0.3 to +1.1), and SG Putting (-0.2 to +0.8). Each hole simulates shot distribution via Gaussian random walks conditioned on hole par, hazard density, and green speed.
A match concludes as soon as one team's lead exceeds the number of remaining holes (e.g. 3&2, 4&3). If tied after 18 holes, each team earns 0.5 points (a halve). First to 15.5 points clinches the Presidents Cup.