Peril 01
The Deflator Distortion
Real productivity is calculated by dividing nominal revenue by an estimated price deflator. When inflation indices misestimate hedonic quality gains or lag input spikes, the residual math automatically masquerades as a phantom surge or collapse in worker efficiency.
Peril 02
The Denominator Mirage (Off-the-Clock)
Payroll surveys track recorded hours. In knowledge work and remote environments, unrecorded evening hours, weekend messaging, and contractor outsourcing artificially compress the denominator, creating the illusion of higher output per worker.
Peril 03
Capital Deepening vs. Real TFP
A firm replacing 10 clerks with high-end cloud server instances will see output per employee jump dramatically. Yet Total Factor Productivity (TFP) may be negative if the rental cost of compute matches or exceeds the saved wages.