China Real Estate Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Simulator

Investigating macroeconomic leverage, buyer-funded developer presales, and corporate capital diversion (2016 NBS Fixture).

Presets:
Buyer Financing Contribution
RMB 6.64T
Down payments (4.20T) + Mortgages (2.44T)
Buyer Share of Developer Funds
46.05%
Total developer capital: RMB 14.42T
Household Mortgage Leverage
3.33x
Debt: RMB 700,000 (Equity: 300k)
Loop Stability Diagnostic
Self-reinforcing upswing (requires perpetual price gains to service developer obligations)
Capital reallocates to real estate (Property expected return 8.5% > Capex 5.2%)
The Buyer as Developer Financier: Capital Flow Pipeline
Visualizing how household deposits + mortgage creation bypass traditional corporate loans to form 46% of developer funding.
Dynamic Flow Rate: ACTIVE
① Household Balance Sheet Leveraged Retail
② Commercial Banking Sector Credit Expansion
③ Developer Financing Sources NBS 2016 Benchmark
④ Corporate Capital Allocation Arbitrage Active

Household Store-of-Wealth Vehicle Benchmarking

Comparing how RMB 300,000 of household savings performed across accessible stores of wealth under Chinese institutional conditions.

Store of Wealth Vehicle Capital Deployed Effective Exposure Leverage Ratio Expected Net 1-Yr Return Systemic Bottleneck / Friction
🏠 Leveraged Residential Property RMB 300,000 RMB 1,000,000 3.33x +16.8% (RMB 50,500) Requires perpetual price gains; illiquid transfer friction
🏦 State Commercial Bank Deposit RMB 300,000 RMB 300,000 1.00x +2.5% (RMB 7,500) Financial repression; lags urban living inflation
📈 Domestic A-Share Equity Index RMB 300,000 RMB 300,000 1.00x +4.0% (RMB 12,000) High historic retail volatility, weak dividend payouts
📑 Bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) RMB 300,000 RMB 300,000 1.00x +4.2% (RMB 12,600) Implicit guarantee eroded post-2018 asset mgmt reforms
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