Pyrrhic Victory & Protest Candidate Impact Analyzer

Clacton 2024 Reference Model

Moderate Erosion

"The solid margin of victory should give the leader little solace; it is an embarrassment that Count Binface, a sheer novelty contender, captured enough ballots to test the mandate."

Plurality Margin

8,405

+17.8% vs. 2nd

Protest-to-Majority

22.0%

Novelty / Majority

Mandate Vulnerability

34.2

Index (0-100 scale)

Total Turnout

57.6%

47,270 cast

Active Candidate Ballot Standings

Counterfactual Tactical Redistribution

Simulate 2nd Preferences

How would the winner's majority shift if protest/novelty ballots (e.g. Count Binface) were tactically concentrated into opposition contenders?

Reallocate Protest Votes to Main Opposition 0% (0 votes)

Novelty Voter Turnout Abstention Drift 0% (0 votes)

Protest Voter Transfer to 3rd Parties (Con / LibDem / Grn) 0% (0 votes)

Counterfactual Majority Outcome:

At baseline, the winner holds a comfortable 8,405 vote buffer. The satirical vote of 1,850 represents 22.0% of the majority margin.

Second-Preference Tactical Transfer Matrix

Contender	Original	Transferred	Adjusted Total	New Margin