PSKY Divestment & Regulatory Settlement Modeler

Antitrust clearance analysis, California AG Rob Bonta settlement modeling, and pro-forma studio economics

Paramount-Skydance (PSKY) Media M&A
Source Brief (r/psky context): "PSKY should just bite the bullet and Divest CNN... Bonta would settle and we could get this show on the road. Sell CNN to Universal and let’s get this super studio launched." This modeler computes the exact antitrust math, state AG settlement likelihoods, and studio valuation upside.
Scenarios:

1. Portfolio Asset Divestment Controls

Toggle assets for divestment and select acquirer candidates
CNN Worldwide News & Cable
Valuation: $6.8B EBITDA: $750M News Friction: High
Target Buyer:
CBS News & Broadcast Stations Linear Network
Valuation: $8.2B EBITDA: $920M FCC Market Reach: 38.2%
Paramount Pictures Lot & Film IP Core Studio
Valuation: $14.5B EBITDA: $1,350M Status: Retained Core
Core Asset
Skydance Film, TV & Animation Production Core
Valuation: $4.8B EBITDA: $480M Status: Retained Core
Core Asset
Paramount+ Direct-to-Consumer Streaming
Valuation: $4.2B EBITDA: -$180M (DTC Drag)

2. Regulatory & Litigation Stance

Model state AG settlement appetite & federal antitrust friction
Open to Settlement
Heightened Scrutiny
Litigation Injunction
Standard Clearance
Strict News Overlap

Regulatory Settlement Clearance Probability

88%
High Probability - Settlement Feasible

Divesting CNN satisfies state antitrust concerns regarding cross-media market concentration.

California AG Clearance:
92%
Federal DOJ/FTC Review:
85%
News HHI Index:
1,380

Pro-Forma 'Super Studio' Economics

Paramount-Skydance post-remedy financial profile
Net Divestment Proceeds
+$6.50B
Cash for debt reduction
Pro-Forma Net Debt / EBITDA
2.14x
Target: ≤ 2.40x (Safe)
Clean Studio EBITDA Margin
24.2%
+380 bps (linear drag eliminated)
Estimated Deal Close Timeline
3.5 Mos
Avoids 12-18 mo litigation trial

3. Divestment & Regulatory Term Sheet

Structured remedy package for antitrust filing
Loading term sheet data...
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