Axios Deal Horizon

Publisher AI Licensing & Horizon Modeler

Cumulative Deal Floor $13.50M $2.25 / subscriber / yr
Total Traffic Loss Risk -$9.56M 24.5% organic decay over 3.0 yrs
Net Contract Yield +$3.95M Positive Buffer
Visibility Gap Ratio 26.0x 156 wks deal vs 6 wks sight

Dual-Horizon Cash Flow & Risk Projection

Comparing guaranteed AI data licensing floor against organic search referral erosion across rolling quarters.

Guaranteed AI Fee
Cannibalized Value
Net Value Added
6-Wk Line of Sight
Horizon Stress Analysis Favorable Deal
Per-Edition Annual AI Yield $140,625 / ed / yr
Cannibalization Break-Even Rate 34.6% max decay
Rolling 6-Wk Committed Exposure $519,231 licensing
Unhedged Term Beyond Line-of-Sight 150 Weeks (96.2%)
The publisher achieves an annual data yield of $2.25/subscriber across 32 editions. Guaranteed licensing outperforms organic referral decay until search erosion reaches 34.6%.
Quarterly Cash Flow Breakdown All figures in $ USD
Period Guaranteed Decay Loss Net Yield
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super