Source Breakdown: Mayfield Contract Debate
QB Contract Value Index
CBS Sports asked if Baker Mayfield "ain't worth that money" following his 3-year, $100M Buccaneers contract ($33.3M APY). This interactive model benchmarks NFL quarterback salaries against Expected Points Added (EPA/play), Completion % Over Expected (CPOE), and cap efficiency to determine true contract value.
Baker Contract Surplus
+$8.4M / yr
Consensus: Value Surplus
NFL Median QB APY
$37.5M
Top QB cap reaches $55M - $60M
EPA Per $10M Paid
+0.042 EPA
Rank #8 among veteran starters
QB Efficiency vs. Contract APY Matrix
Interactive quadrant scatter: Click or hover any quarterback to inspect Top-Right: High Efficiency / High Cap (Elite)
Top-Left: High Efficiency / Low Cap (Massive Surplus)
Red Pin: Baker Mayfield (TB)
Bottom-Right: Low Efficiency / High Cap (Overpaid)
| Rank | Quarterback | Team | Contract APY | Guaranteed | EPA/Play | CPOE % | Model Fair Value | Net Surplus | Verdict |
|---|
Loaded 32 NFL quarterbacks. Hover or click points to explore efficiency metrics.
Evaluating the CBS Post Debate
When NFL on CBS asked "Baker Mayfield ain't worth that money! Do you agree?", social media reacted to the headline $100M figure. However, in modern NFL salary cap economics:
- Cap percentage context: $33.3M APY occupies roughly 13.0% of the 2024 salary cap ($255.4M), whereas Tier-1 QBs command 21%–23% ($55M+).
- Production benchmark: Mayfield's +0.14 EPA/play and 4,044 pass yards / 28 TDs in Tampa Bay put him in the top 12 of passing efficiency, outperforming higher-paid veterans like Deshaun Watson ($46M), Daniel Jones ($40M), and Kyler Murray ($46.1M).
- Surplus valuation: Baker generates an estimated +$8.4M annual surplus value, placing his contract squarely in the "High-Value Bridge / Franchise Bargain" quadrant.
Index Formula & Methodology
The QB Contract Value Index calculates Expected Fair Salary ($M APY) by normalizing three pillars across the 32 starting quarterbacks:
- Passing EPA (Expected Points Added): Measures down-and-distance situational scoring impact per pass play.
- CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected): Calibrates ball placement and throw difficulty independent of scheme.
- Turnover Margin & Leverage: Penalizes turnover-worthy plays and rewards postseason drive success under high-leverage situations.
- Net Surplus = Fair Market Value ($M) minus Actual Contract APY ($M). Positive indicates surplus value; negative indicates cap burden.