QB Injury Impact & Offense Contingency Lab
Simulate drive outcomes, expected points added (EPA), turnover shifts, and win expectancy when a starting quarterback goes down or plays through injury.
Drive Outcome Distribution Comparison (1,000 Simulated Drives)
Expected Drive EndingsPer 11 Possessions
| Outcome | Starter | Backup | Variance |
|---|
Gameplan Adjustment PlanCoaching Contingency
Why Cart Escorts Cause Acute Overreactions
When Caleb Williams was carted off against the Minnesota Vikings, sideline panic ensued. However, medical protocols require cart transport for any lower extremity clearance before X-ray imaging, regardless of whether it is an ankle sprain or structural fracture. This lab translates diagnostic grades into quantitative drive expectancy.
EPA/Dropback as the Quarterback Yardstick
Expected Points Added per dropback isolates quarterback decision-making from defensive field position. Replacing a +0.14 EPA starter with a -0.08 backup drops offensive efficiency by roughly 0.22 points per pass attempt, accumulating to 7-9 points lost across a typical 36-dropback contest.
Pressure-to-Sack Ratio (P2S)
Scrambling rookies often hold the ball longer. When nursing lower-leg contusions or ankle injuries, pocket evasion deteriorates. A 5% increase in pressure-to-sack rate converts manageable 2nd-and-mediums into drive-killing 3rd-and-longs.
Playcalling Adaptations
Offensive coordinators adjust to limited or backup QBs by cutting PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected), emphasizing condensed 12-personnel, motion screen passes, and heavy quick-game spacing to prevent blindside hits.