QB Injury Timeline & Spread Impact Modeler
Simulate recovery hazard rates for hamstring injuries, offensive drop-off metrics (EPA/play), game line adjustments, and divisional playoff odds swings.
Based on 10-year NFL quarterback soft-tissue injury strain cohort records.
Simulated game margins with Williams vs. Backup under current recovery trajectory.
| Game / Week | Opponent | Status | Starter Line | Adjusted Line | Starter Win % | Backup Win % | Win Prob Δ |
|---|
Source Grounding & Real-World Context
On September 21, ESPN senior NFL insider Adam Schefter reported that Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson announced QB Caleb Williams is considered "week to week" following a hamstring injury suffered Sunday, with morning MRI imaging confirming the diagnosis. Williams is expected to "miss some time."
In modern NFL roster management, a starting quarterback's absence produces the sharpest market correction of any position in professional sports. This interactive tool models the cascading effects of hamstring strains across:
- Physiological Clearance Curves: Return-to-play hazard distributions based on MRI strain severity.
- Offensive Down-shift (EPA/play): Expected points added drop-off from starter to replacement.
- Market Spread Adjustment: The 2.5 to 5.5 point line penalty applied by oddsmakers when starting QBs sit.
Methodology & Mathematical Framework
EPA to Point Spread Translation: An average NFL offense runs approximately 63 offensive plays per contest. A -0.22 EPA/play drop translates to approximately -13.8 expected points over a full 60-minute regulation game, though compensatory game scripts (increased run rate, conservative field position) typically compress the realized margin difference to 3.5–4.5 points.
Win Probability Calculation: Game win probabilities are computed via normal cumulative distribution approximations: P(Win) = Φ((Spread) / (σ=13.8)) where σ represents single-game NFL score variance.
All evaluations run locally on your device with zero external latency.