Ranked Choice Coalition Studio

Model instant-runoff ballot transfers, exhaustion curves, cross-party coalition building, and Condorcet pairwise matchups under multi-candidate ranked-choice election systems.

Election Model

Instant Runoff (RCV)

Historical & Counterfactual Presets

Moderate Republican Cross-over 29% Share of moderate Republican ballots transferring to the Democrat rather than hardline GOP or exhausting.

Ballot Exhaustion Tendency 21% Ballots with only one candidate ranked that become inactive when eliminated.

Round-by-Round Flow & Outcome

Majority Target: 50% + 1

Projected Winner

Mary Peltola

Final Margin

+9.8%

Total Rounds

3 Rounds

Exhausted Ballots

11.2%

Condorcet Pairwise Matchup Analysis

Shows who wins if every voter was presented with direct one-on-one head-to-head ballots. A true Condorcet winner defeats every other contender head-to-head.

How Ranked-Choice Voting Transforms Polarized Races

In Alaska's nonpartisan top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system, voters rank up to four candidates regardless of party. If no candidate secures an absolute majority (>50%) of active first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated.

Their ballots are then distributed according to the voters' indicated next choices. If a voter ranked no backup candidate, their ballot becomes exhausted (inactive), reducing the threshold needed to claim a majority among remaining active votes.

Why "Personal Appeal" and Idiosyncrasy Win

When two candidates from the same party (e.g., hardline vs. moderate Republicans) both run, attacking one another often prompts eliminated voters to rank the consensus cross-party candidate second rather than their rival, or to exhaust their ballot altogether. This dynamic enabled idiosyncratic, coalition-building figures to capture crucial statewide seats.

The Condorcet Paradox & Center Squeeze

Instant-runoff voting guarantees that the winner has broad support among surviving ballots, but can occasionally suffer from the center squeeze effect: a moderate consensus candidate who could defeat all opponents head-to-head might be eliminated in an early round if they fail to secure enough first-choice rankings.

Use the pairwise matchup table above to inspect whether the instant-runoff winner is also the Condorcet champion, or whether early polarization eliminated a broad consensus pick.

How Ballot Exhaustion Changes the Quota

The majority threshold is not 50% of original ballots cast; it is 50% + 1 of active ballots in that round. High voter exhaustion lowers the raw vote count required to cross the finish line.