DISRUPTION PARAMETERS
LIVE SENSITIVITY
Direct supply capacity taken offline due to pipeline damage or containment.
Geopolitical premium adder (Low: +$0.50, Mod: +$1.60, High: +$3.20, Crit: +$5.00).
Emergency drawdown volume from IEA/US SPR buffers entering commercial refining.
Base global equilibrium price before news announcement.
COMMODITY IMPACT TELEMETRY
EVALUATED
Projected Brent Price
$84.20
+13.02%
Net Daily Deficit
1,000,000
Barrels / Day
Market Risk Tier
High Volatility
Premium: +$9.70
30-Day Brent Futures Trajectory vs Baseline (Crude $/bbl)
Projected Curve
Pre-Outage Baseline
Assessment Classification
High Volatility
Under this scenario, an unbuffered 1,000,000 bpd net deficit compounded by high attack threat escalates prompt Brent crude to $84.20/bbl (a climb of 13.02% over the $74.50 baseline). Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases mitigate 33.3% of the initial pipeline loss, but physical restocking tightness sustains elevated crack spreads.