Running Back Efficiency Lab

Explore workhorse volume, rush gap tendencies, contact evasion, and season-long output models. Built to resolve backfield debates like Kenneth Walker III vs. Jonathan Taylor with real physical metrics.

RB Profile & Tendencies

Select Preset Back

Projected Carries/Game 15.5

Workload ceiling across 17 regular season weeks.

Missed Tackles Forced % 27.0%

Elusiveness rate per rush attempt.

Yards After Contact / Att 3.25

Drive and tackle drag yardage after collision.

Breakaway Run Rate (15+ yds) 13.5%

Frequency of chunk open-field cutbacks.

Offensive Line Run-Block Grade 54.0

Hole generation and second-level push.

Target Share (Passing Downs) 8.0%

Receiving involvement and PPR floor.

Kenneth Walker III Simulation

Click any offensive line gap or tap a button below to trigger live carries.

Ready for kickoff

Interactive: Click on any offensive gap to run ball carrier

Projected Rush Yds 1,136 4.32 YPC / 263 att

Projected Rush TDs 9.4 58% Redzone share

Receiving Scrimmage 228 yds 29 rec • 1.1 rec TD

PPR Fantasy / Game 13.8 RB14 Consensus tier

Walker III vs. Taylor Tale of the Tape

Analytical Dimension	Kenneth Walker III	Jonathan Taylor	Simulation Edge
Expected Carries / Game	15.5 carries	19.0 carries	Taylor (+3.5 workhorse margin)
Missed Tackles Forced %	27.0% (Elite elusiveness)	21.8% (Power drive)	Walker III (+5.2% contact shake)
Yards After Contact / Att	3.25 YCO/A	3.45 YCO/A	Taylor (+0.20 push efficiency)
Breakaway Run Rate (15+ yds)	13.5% (High burst)	11.2% (Steady chunk)	Walker III (+2.3% home-run upside)
Goal Line / RZ Share	58% SEA backfield	74% IND bellcow	Taylor (+16% high-value touches)
OL Run Blocking Support	54.0 (League avg)	68.5 (Top-8 unit)	Taylor (Superior trench push)
Simulated 17-Game Total	1,364 scrim yds / 10.5 TDs	1,580 scrim yds / 13.8 TDs	Jonathan Taylor (Volume & OL edge)

Simulated Play-by-Play Log Recent carries & defensive collision outcomes

Drive initialized: Select a gap or click 'Simulate Drive' to evaluate reps. --

Why Volume & Offensive Line Play Dictate the Verdict

While Kenneth Walker III possesses unmatched sudden acceleration and forced missed-tackle rates (routinely ranking top-5 in elusiveness), Jonathan Taylor benefits from Indianapolis' superior offensive line run-blocking grade and an unchallenged goal-line stranglehold. In the NFL, offensive line push accounts for ~48% of rushing yard variance before contact.

Simulation Physics & Methodology

The simulator projects carries using a combination of offensive line leverage (yards before contact), individual elusiveness (MTF % and YCO/A), and defense box count distributions. Red zone goal-to-go opportunities are scaled against team run-pass ratios in scoring territory.