Effective Secondary Tariff
85.0
%
Rate × Enforcement factor
Projected Landed Cost
89.25
USD/bbl
Baseline Urals landed plus tariff friction
Diverted Import Volume
1.45
MBPD
Displaced Russian maritime barrels
US Tariff Revenue Potential
44.5
Billion USD
Secondary levy on bilateral US imports
Interactive Trade Flow & Redirection Network
Russia (Origin)
Importer
Alternative Refiners
US Market Leverage
Hover or drag nodes to inspect flow volumes. Dynamic stroke thickness scales with real-time throughput.
Engine: D3.js v7 Force Simulation
India (Sample Major Importer) — Simulation Outcome
Sanctions Impact Assessment under Active Scenario
Effective Tariff Rate
85.0%
Projected Landed Cost
$89.25 / bbl
Diverted Volume
1.45 MBPD
Projected Annual Tariff Rev
$44.5 Billion
Under a 100% statutory secondary tariff with 85% customs enforcement, Russian Urals crude landed parity rises sharply from discounted levels to $89.25/bbl, eroding the discount arbitrage. In response, 1.45 MBPD (76.3% of baseline imports) is diverted toward domestic stockpiles and non-aligned blending channels, triggering a "High diversion to domestic / non-aligned refiners" classification and exposing $44.5 Billion in bilateral trade leverage.