Russian Oil Tariff Trade Simulator

Legislative Framework: Simulating trade friction and price reverberations stemming from the US House bill empowering executive secondary tariffs on foreign nations that continue to import discounted Russian crude oil (Urals blend). Adjust policy levers below to inspect trade volume redirection and macroeconomic repercussions.

Scenarios:

Importing Nations Tariff Levers URALS $74.5/bbl

China (PRC) 25%

Imports: 2.10M bbl/d • Pre-Tariff Disc: 18%

India 25%

Imports: 1.90M bbl/d • Pre-Tariff Disc: 20%

Turkey 25%

Imports: 0.40M bbl/d • Pre-Tariff Disc: 15%

EU (Third-Party Hubs) 25%

Imports: 0.60M bbl/d • Pre-Tariff Disc: 12%

D3 Dynamic Trade Redirection Network Interactive Vector Flow

Origin (Russia)

Active Flows

Importers

Shadow / Rerouted Hubs

Projected Tariff Revenue

$14.8B/yr

US customs duties collected on goods

Volume Rerouted / Shadow Hubs
          38.5%
        
1.93M bbl/d shifted to dark fleet

Est. US Retail Gasoline Impact

+$0.42/gal

Global benchmark squeeze pass-through

Geopolitical Friction Score

78/100

High Friction • Secondary Sanction Strain

Trade Impact Ledger & Scenario Reconciliation

Real-time synthesis of import elasticities, tariff revenues, and dark fleet evasion dynamics.

EXPORT READY

Importer Entity	Baseline Demand	Applied Tariff	Effective Import Disc.	Volume Diverted	Net Tariff Contribution

Active Fixture Signature: Baseline Representative 25% (Urals $74.5/bbl) • Model Engine: Elastic Trade Matrix v2.4