Test Case:
Inspired by The Economist trade circumvention investigations
88 / 100

CRITICAL CIRCUMVENTION RISK

RESTRICTED SHIPMENT

Strong evidence of sanctions evasion corridor. The export of Common High Priority List (CHPL) components via intermediary transshipment conduit presents actionable liability under EU Sanctions Reg 833/2014 & US EAR.

Inspect Findings
Statutory Exposure High EU/OFAC Art. 12g & EAR Gen. Prohib.
Priority Tier Tier 1 (High) Battlefield Tech Component
Trade Anomaly Factor 12.5x Normal Over 2021 pre-war norm
Red Flag Triggers 4 / 5 Active risk triggers
Supply Chain Route Topology & Conduit Nodes Arrows depict trade movement and diversion vector
Origin Node • Leg 1

Ireland (Dublin Hub)

Registered exporter / Tech multinational subsidiary. Subject to EU dual-use export licensing rules.

Intermediary • Leg 2

Georgia • Kazakhstan

Transshipment hub showing exponential import spike without domestic industrial end-use.

Diversion Vector • Leg 3

Russian Federation

Suspected ultimate consignee identified on military supply chain procurement matrices.

Compliance Findings & Statutory Due Diligence Checks

AUDIT REF: SCR-2026-9281
Check / Obligation Status Observed Evidence & Compliance Requirement Statutory Basis
Live audit complete. 4 statutory circumvention triggers detected.
Context & Statutory Background: EU Sanctions & The Economist Investigation

As reported by The Economist ("Ireland is helping supply Russia’s war machine"), Western jurisdictions hosting global semiconductor and tech multinational headquarters face severe circumvention vectors. While direct exports from the EU to Russia fell precipitously following February 2022, trade in dual-use microelectronics from Western subsidiaries to intermediary transshipment nations—such as Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, and Kyrgyzstan—surged by over 1,000%.

Under EU Sanctions Regulation 833/2014 (Articles 12 and 12g) and U.S. Export Administration Regulations (EAR), companies are legally prohibited from participating in schemes that knowingly or unknowingly circumvent export bans on Common High Priority List (CHPL) battlefield goods. This tool models those multi-leg routing corridors, screens for statistical volume spikes, evaluates corporate intermediary red flags, and generates formal due diligence documentation.

Common High Priority List (CHPL) 50-Code Structure

The G7, EU, US, UK, and Japan maintain a harmonized list of 50 dual-use items grouped into four tiers based on their critical presence in Russian precision-guided missiles, surveillance drones (e.g. Orlan-10, Shahed/Geran-2), and armored vehicles:

  • Tier 1: Electronic integrated circuits, processors, memories, micro-controllers (HS 8542.31, 8542.32, 8542.33, 8542.39). Highest diversion risk.
  • Tier 2: Wireless telecommunication transceivers, radar systems, and optical equipment (HS 8517.62, 8526.91).
  • Tier 3A & 3B: Inertial navigation, compasses, discrete electronic components, diodes, transistors.
  • Tier 4: Advanced computer numerical control (CNC) machining centers, lathes, and semiconductor test equipment.
Standard Due Diligence Obligations (No-Russia Clause & Know-Your-Customer)

European Commission guidance requires exporters selling Tier 1–4 items to third countries outside the EU/G7 partner coalition to:

  1. Contractually prohibit re-exportation to Russia or for use in Russia ("No-Russia clause", EU Art. 12g).
  2. Verify physical premises, operational history, and capital structure of intermediary freight-forwarders.
  3. Conduct anomalous trade analysis comparing customer purchase history against national economic capacity.
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