Dual Hammer: US-China Sanctions & Supply Chain Crossfire Simulator

1. Target Sector Archetype

PRESET

China Raw / Tier-1 Dependence 65%

US IP / Financial Rail Reliance 80%

2. Dual Hammer Policy Controls

US Financial & Tech Hammer BIS / OFAC

Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) Extraterritorial US tool/software nexus bans foreign fab transfers

OFAC SDN & 50% Rule Blocking USD clearing severed; bank asset freeze across secondary entities

Outbound Investment Screening (E.O. 14105) Prohibits US private equity, JV capital & AI co-development

China Supply & Legal Hammer MOFCOM / AFSL

Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law (AFSL) Private civil suits & asset seizure for complying with US bans

Unreliable Entity List (UEL) Designation halts China trade, entry visas, and investment rights

Rare Earth & Graphite Export Licensing Strict dual-use mineral quota requiring end-user disclosure

US Enforcement Risk

78 CRITICAL

OFAC/FDPR Exposure

China Chokepoint Risk

84 SECTOR LOCK

Feedstock & Asset Seizure

Active Legal Traps

3 IRRECONCILABLE

Zero-Sum Compliance Collisions

Supply Chain Resilience

22% VULNERABLE

Replacement Lead: 14 mo

Irreconcilable Jurisdictional Traps Detected Automated Regulatory Collision Engine

3. Strategic Mitigation Pathways

DE-RISK

Select architectural and corporate restructuring levers to decouple vulnerable entities and defuse legal traps:

Dual-Stack Supply Bifurcation -35% Collision

Split manufacturing into 'In-China-For-China' and clean ex-China export lines.

Ring-Fenced Foreign HoldCo -20% Seizure Risk

Isolate PRC operating assets behind independent non-US holding structures.

Non-US IP Sourcing (FDPR Exit) -30% US Trap

Replace US-origin EDA/lithography tools with European/Japanese alternatives.

Allied Toll Smelting & Stockpiling +40% Resilience

Contract long-term rare earth processing via Australia/Canada corridors.

4. Executive Strategic Memo