Sanctions Transmission & Trade Flow Matrix

Transmission Parameters

Scenario Presets

Crude Oil Production 3.10 M bpd

Domestic Refining Demand 1.75 M bpd

Reference Brent Benchmark $78.50 / bbl

Friction & Intermediary Costs

Primary Sanctions Discount Spread 18.5%

Shadow Maritime Logistics Premium $7.20 / bbl

Secondary Sanctions Interception Rate 22%

East Asian Teapots (RMB) Share

Gulf Blending Hubs (AED) Share

Sovereign Trade Flow & Revenue Leakage Sankey Live Dynamic Calculation

Gross Benchmark ValueBENCHMARK

$38.68B

Unsanctioned theoretical export value at reference Brent

Trader & Buyer DiscountsDISCOUNT

-$7.16B

Concessions granted to off-takers absorbing secondary risk

Dark Fleet Transit & InsuranceLOGISTICS

-$3.55B

STS transfers, flag-hopping, non-Western P&I coverage

Intermediary Clearing FrictionSETTLEMENT

-$1.82B

FX conversion hair-cuts, front-company spreads & escrow delay

Analyzing transmission: Under high enforcement stringency, 1.35 M bpd of exportable crude sustains a 18.5% buyer markdown and $7.20/bbl shadow maritime friction. The sovereign treasury captures $26.15B in net revenue out of $38.68B baseline potential (67.6% realization efficiency).