Model Parameters
Pipeline Baseline Capacity
5,000 kbpd
Max Petroline export to Yanbu (Red Sea)
Hormuz Maritime Diversion
1,500 kbpd
Rerouted via Persian Gulf terminals/tankers
Repair Recovery Speed
25% / day
Rate of damaged pumping/valve restoration
Emergency SPR Drawdown
1,200 kbpd
Global strategic reserve injections (US / IEA)
Closure Duration Before Repair
5 days
Initial disruption window before active ramp
Operations & Impact Analysis
Real-Time Dynamic Run
Peak Deficit
3,500kbpd
Recovery Time
4days
Supply Stabilization
94.2%
Est. Price Impact
$4.50/bbl
Active Petroleum Infrastructure Topology
Throughput Recovery Curve & Net Supply Gap (Days Post-Incident)
Secretary Wright Assessment: The closure of the 5,000 kbpd East-West pipeline temporarily exposed crude markets. With an active diversion of 1,500 kbpd through Hormuz maritime channels and a 1,200 kbpd strategic release, peak net supply deficit is held at 3,500 kbpd. At a 25%/day repair velocity, pipeline infrastructure reopens in 4 days, resulting in 94.2% supply stabilization and limiting global crude price shocks to +$4.50/bbl.