South Carolina GOP Senate Runoff Coalition & County Map Axios Breaking Report

Real-time county margin analyzer, turnout differential model, and regional coalition firewall inspector.

Projected Winner

Darline Graham

Statewide Projected Margin

+12.6%

Turnout Indexed Votes

374,520

Firewall Region

Lowcountry

Counties Won (Graham / Opp.)

38 / 8

Swing Counties Flipped

Margin:

Graham +20%+

Graham +10-20%

Graham +0-10%

Opponent +0-10%

Opponent +10%+

Runoff Coalition Presets

Suburban Swing Weight (% shift to Graham):

Rural Turnout Drop-off vs Primary:

-35%

Lowcountry Mobilization Boost:

+5%

Region: Lowcountry

Tier: Suburban Metro

Simulated Margin: +18.4%

Projected Votes: 34,120

Graham Share: 59.2%

Opponent Share: 40.8%

Click any county row or map tile to inspect

County	Region	Type	Sim. Votes	Graham %	Opponent %	Net Margin	Leader