Metascience Lab

Science Disruptiveness Simulator: The CD Index & Progress Debate

Historical Presets:
💡 Drag nodes to rearrange. Click any citing paper to cycle its citation links.
Citation Network Classification
Focal Paper (F) — Landmark work evaluated
Prior Foundations (B) — Cited by focal paper
nf: Focal-Only Citations (Disruptive)
nb: Both Cited (Consolidating)
nr: Prior-Only Citations (Reference baseline)
CDt Disruption Score Era: 1953
Calculated Index Value
+0.76
Highly Disruptive
-1.0 (Consolidating) 0.0 (Neutral) +1.0 (Disruptive)
CDt = (nf - nb) / (nf + nb + nr)
nf (Focal only): 21
nb (Both cited): 2
nr (Prior only): 4
Denominator (Total citing cohort): 27
Bibliometric Scale & Inflation Sandbox

The Economist reports on the statistical artifact: as reference lists expand over time, citing authors inadvertently cite both new and classic papers, causing nb to artificially explode.

Average Reference List Length (L): 12 refs
Global Publication Volume Growth: 1.0x
1950s Sparse Citation Regime: Papers cited ~10 references. When a breakthrough arrived, future papers cited it directly without continuing to cite obsolete predecessor techniques, yielding high positive CD scores.
Citation Adjacency Summary
Total Network Nodes: 36
Active Citation Links: 58
Raw Disruption Ratio: +0.760
Normalized (Inflation-Controlled): +0.782
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