The Poisson Rarity Factor
With 4 goals in 67 appearances (an average of λ = 0.0597 goals/game), the Poisson probability of scoring 2 or more goals in a single match is P(X ≥ 2) ≈ 0.174%. A midfielder with that baseline scoring profile would mathematically average one brace every 575 matches (~15 full Serie A seasons).