Streaming Economics Diagnostic

Series Retention & Renewal Risk Modeler

Simulate audience cliff drops, completion velocity, and budget-to-hour efficiency. Discover why streaming hits get renewed while shows like Ride or Die get cancelled after Season 1.

High Cancellation Risk

Cancelled after 1 Season

Completion rate fell to 34.2%, well below Prime Video's 50% sustainability hurdle. High cost per finished hour seals the shutdown.

Estimated Renewal Odds
14%
Interactive Viewership Decay Curve
Viewers per Ep
50% Greenlight Benchmark
Critical Danger Zone (35%)
Drag any point on the curve to test viewer retention shifts across each episode
28-Day Completion
34.2%
Danger: Under 50% hurdle
Cost / Completed Viewer
$18.01
Platform avg: < $11.50
Finale Viewers
2.67M
-65.8% drop from pilot
Total Stream Hours
34.1M
Global 28-day window
Episode Audience (M) Drop vs Prev Retention Funnel Episode Drop Status
Curve updated. Analysis reflects 28-day streaming retention model.

The 50% Completion Hurdle

Streaming insiders have confirmed that Netflix, Prime Video, and Apple TV+ look at the 28-day completion rate above raw premiere clicks. If fewer than 50% of people who start Episode 1 finish the finale, the likelihood of renewal drops precipitously because those dropoffs won't return for Season 2.

The Episode 2 & 3 "Cliff"

Most cancelled single-season series (like Ride or Die, 1899, or Cowboy Bebop) suffer an acute Episode 2 cliff where over 35% of premiere sampling evaporates immediately. A steep early cliff compounds across remaining episodes, starving the finale of momentum.

Efficiency: Cost Per Completed Eye

A $100M show that loses 65% of its audience costs the streamer over $35 per completed subscriber. In contrast, low-budget series and sleeper comedies remain profitable even with moderate premiere numbers because their cost per completed viewer is tiny.

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