1. Market Parameters american odds
Win / Over Odds
Lay / Under Odds
Offered Target Odds
Odds Format
Shin's method isolates insider trading bias from market vig to compute true un-vigged win probability.
2. Quantitative Edge & Valuation
+EV OPPORTUNITY
Devig Fair Prob
58.33%
Fair: -140
Expected Value
+6.81%
+$6.81 / $100
Optimal Stake
$21.84
2.18% of Bankroll
Sharp Market Vig
4.55%
Overround: 104.55%
Soft Target Implied Win Prob:
54.34%
Un-vigged Fair Lay Prob:
41.67%
Full Kelly Stake Fraction:
8.73%
1,000 Wager Exp. Profit:
+$148.80
3. Monte Carlo Bankroll Trajectory (1,000 Wagers)
Simulates 1,000 independent trial series under fractional Kelly sizing. Hover or scroll to scrub outcomes.
90th Pct
Median (50th)
10th Pct